Gardening

I have never done gardening in my whole life, but now I feel that this is something that I should try and get a little bit of experience in. It might come in handy one day. Since I know nothing I have a lot of questions.

Inclination

How easy is it to do some home farming/gardening on a plot that has up to 30 degree inclination? In order to grow veggies is it necessary to plow once a year? A friend of mine has a backyard of 4x8 meters and used a tiny plow (a bit bigger than a lawn mower). This kind of equipment can be used on terrain that has 30 degree inclination?

First I learned that instead of a lot of gardening it might be easier to consider planting trees that produce food (nuts, fruits, etc.). They need less maintenance.

Second I learned that plowing might not be needed or actually be bad. According to a book, not only is it not necessary to plow every year, it is not conducive to good gardening. The earth has natural layers which are not good to mix up. Each layer has it's own ecosystem and it's own role in the growing of plants, for example fungus occupies one layer, mostly in the form of filaments, and serves an important role in the transport of nutrients. Plowing destroys all the filaments and the transport is interrupted until they grow back. What's important is to have a good layer of mulching. Some (organic) gardeners recommend covering the ground with black plastic (several months) to prepare it for planting.

Size of plot

What is the size of land needed for veggies (sq meters)? How big a garden does one need?

Well, it all depends. Where, sunshine, rain, inclination, type of soil all matter. An expert can supply up to 10 people with a single hectare. But I believe that that needs 10 years to get the soil to be right, the trees to grow, etc. Initially it will be impossible to achieve such a return. Especially since I am not an expert. For me initially maybe food for 0.5 person/ha is realistic.

What to plant

What are the best vegetables or fruits to plant for a beginner? What is most suitable? Little maintenance, no expertise necessary, high calorie return?

I have not investigated that yet. Does anyone have an opinion?

Technology Revisited

A friend provided me with this link: http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net. It's an American perspective. The author argues that technology will not improve the peak oil issue, on the contrary technology makes the situation worse. He basis this opinion on the Jevon's paradox.

He argues that the same holds true for conservation too. If an individual conserves another individual or the banks or corporations will use the saved energy to reap profits, such that the total consumption will not be reduced.

An all encompassing holistic mind-set change towards energy and according legislation is more important than savings through technology or conservations. Individual contributions will just be wiped out by current greed and profit thinking. Nonetheless, the individual conservationist will be better of and better prepared for the day when the oil really ends.

Technology

What do you see as the role of technology in the context of the coming peak oil and economic crisis and transition? Do you see technology overall beneficial? What are pros and cons of tech in this mess?

Zeitgeist Addendum suggests a solution partially based on technology, such as the Venus project. I did not like this futuristic picture of a sci-fi solution too much. Don't get me wrong, I like technology, a lot as a matter of fact. But I also think it is very limited in the context of nature. I also like the concept of simplicity and in many occasions I believe a simple solution will be better than a hi-tech solution. Especially when it comes to farming, gardening and food production. We must get away from hi-tech large scale farming and return to non-GM, no-human-made-pesticide, etc. gardening.

My friends comment that the Internet is a must and absolutely vital in this transition phase to create community, share solutions and propagate information (to compensate for the highly influenced media channels). I vote yes to that too.

Friends also shared with me their opinion that with respect to technology being part of the future, they don't think that the solution is unique. There are technological solutions that could prolong our current way of life such as the loremo or aptera. Is this the right way to go? Or would it be better to make a complete break and develop bicycles and public transportation? Efficiency can actually increase the market for fossil fuels. For example the invention of the electric light bulb increased the market for natural gas because suddenly people other than the rich could afford enough gas to have light at night. Technology of course can play a huge role in the generation of renewable energy. There is room for a great deal of research, for example figuring out how much can sustainably be produced is a very open question which needs to be addressed in order to come up with solutions for organizing civilization. How will this energy be used? The fact that energy is finite has profound implications for political and economic organization. It raises philosophical and ethical questions as well: should people be allowed to become exceedingly rich? If wealth is finite, concentrating wealth among a few people means other people will have to become poor, that is, the trickle down theory fails. Should we restrict population growth? If so how?

"The Limits to Growth" (1979, 2004) was one of the first book to use extensive computer simulations to model the future. The authors lost the debate for funding, though the critiques generally missed the point. The book was dismissed because it's predictive value was bad (models in the 1979 book came up with shortages of critical minerals in the 1990's which did not occur). But the simulations were not meant to predict specific dates, but rather give long term dynamics and create scenarios on which to base policy. The shortages occurring in the models are happening now rather than 15 years ago, the dynamics were correct, the data fed into the models was bad.

The task is enormous. Historically, there are many examples of failure to deal with environmental degradation which lead to catastrophes. Once the last tree had been cut on Easter Island, wars reduced the population by over 90% to a sustainable level. Technology did not help the Vikings who brought European ways of life to Greenland for several centuries. The weather changed (it got colder), the Vikings could not sustain their European ways, but the Inuit survived, though their culture had been dominated for several centuries.

I am a bit disappointed that technology for personal power generation such as solar panels and wind mills is still quite expensive. See this blog article. Like anything else in technology the price can come down significantly if there is enough demand.

What do you think about the best use of technology to assist in smoothening the upcoming peak oil transition?

Hope

From several communities I have heard that it is crucial to remain optimistic and to focus on the positive. It should be struggle for something positive, rather than a fight against something negative.

Friends pointed out that it is better to hit peak oil earlier and that we should be happy to have peak oil. I saw this as a clear deduction a couple of weeks ago. Peak oil will avoid that we kill ourselves with pollution, CO2, global warming, etc. Once all oil and coal is gone we will have fresh air again! There is a silver lining.

I see that there is an opportunity (I say opportunity because I am not sure that we humans will take advantage of it, maybe we screw it up again) for several good things to happen. the obvious I see are: Peak oil gives us the opportunity to help us

• avoid that we kill ourselves with pollution, CO2, global warming
• make us live healthier thru exercise (see Cuba --> less car, more bike)
• make us eat healthier (no more mass production, but local food)
• form more community, reduce crime, have more friends, ...
• we might actually be happier with a simpler post-peak-oil life than with the current 2-jobs, 2-cars and 2-weeks-annual-vacation life we lead

An optimist might argue that all of the above good things will eventually happen. A pessimist will argue that most likely we screw it up again. I think that as usual humans will not take advantage of this opportunity. Politicians, stupidity and corporations will steer us into another dead-end-direction again. But we as individuals just for ourselves can try to partially realize and implement a few of these benefits at a very small scale. Keeping a positive personal attitude however will be important in order to live a happy life despite the global transformation.

Preparation

Here are some ideas that came out of a very initial discussion among friends on the topic of preparation for peak oil and a major crisis.

• Comment 1: Hoping you guys would not mind me bouncing ideas off you. I'd be interested in hearing more what you are doing. I was thinking of buying six month supply of freeze dried food ($2000 or so). It's very difficult to grow food in Phoenix. I'd have to find a way to store lots of water too. Too extreme? Starting to think there is no way to prepare for the extreme events that could follow an economic collapse.

• Comment 2: No, I don't mind if you bounce some ideas around, but many of these things are very personal, I mean that they depend on your belief on
  how and when the disaster will strike. Everyone will have a different solution depending on his believes, his geographical whereabouts and about his immediate resources (house+garden vs flat, etc.).
  
  I think that some precautions like
  - having some spare cash at home
  - having some spare food at home
  makes sense. My wife thinks I am exaggerating.
  
  I also think that the level of disaster depends heavily on where you are. In
  general I think that the US is less prepared and that the US citizens are likely to go violent. Europe I guess is a bit more prepared and I hope a bit more civil (I could be wrong judging by the riots in France last year). It also depends on the region: rural areas will be more prepared. 3rd world countries will not notice anything, life will continue as always, crisis is nothing new to them, they (Argentina, Peru, Cuba, etc.) have for years lived in crisis already, so a new crisis is just everyday life. And poor rural people in these 3rd world country do not and will not even know that the 1st world is in crisis.
  
  The Basque country still has many rural areas and a local economy-system, so I hope that we are a bit better off. Local food products (fish, veggies will be available because they are produced within a 20km radius). Still - like an insurance policy - I think having extra food is a good idea. There is little effort and money involved, and since it easily doable, let's do it. I was thinking about:
  - dry milk, beans, rice, a few cans like tuna fish cans, peanut butter, honey, salt, sugar.
  These are just regular food items (less the dry milk), no freeze dry stuff. How much food? I will start with a 1-month survival amount.
  
  We can also cook with the camping cooker for a week. I am sure you have some white gas fuel at home. All the camping gear (cooker, sleeping bags) might come handy.
  
  As you point out water is a much bigger problem. I see no easy way for myself (no house, no garden, just a small flat) to store water other than a few gallons that last 3 days. Other people have rain-water tanks in the yard, but that is not an option for us. About water, I thought to buy some filter. There are creeks around where we life. I could just filter water. Worst case even from the dirty river. Filtering water takes time (so I wan't do it until really necessary), but the same principle applies: it (buying a filter) can be done with little time and money, so I think it is a good idea.
  
  I am preparing a personal action plan. I have started with a file, writing down some ideas. I have not thought things thru yet. I also have not done the home work assignment part from Crash Course which I want to do. Once finished I can share my personal conclusions (or parts thereof).
  
  Again, my wife thinks I am getting a little carried away and am starting to obsess myself with this issue. I think the easy-to-do high gain items make immediate sense (e.g. food pile, water filter, some emergency cash at home). I was also looking at electricity generation thru bicycle (like http://www.google.es/search?q=pedal+power) which would help power lights or a laptop in case of emergencies.
  
  But everyday life will go on, with or without oil or electricity. I think schools (for our kids), the universities as employers will all continue despite a crash, maybe at reduced level, and maybe with a sporadic break, but they will not just disappear for 5 years while we try to get out of this mess. So, we must plan to be close to the schools and the university so we can continue with this (our children's education and your jobs). The world will not stop, we will just have no more hot water to shower and the supermarket shelves will be empty.

• Comment 3: Lots to think about. Meanwhile I've ordered some survival/solar power/country living books, and some large containers to hold water.
  

• Comment 4: Timing on all this is hard to estimate. Some time ago, a book was reviewed in which a Russian who had lived through the economic collapse of the USSR, and who is currently living in the States thought the US was heading in the same direction. I didn't read the book, but it seemed very interesting. Matt Simmonds noted that the collapse of Enron took 6 days to unfold. If you are ready too early, you just leave a light environmental foot print. Too late, your in trouble. In some ways fossil fuels are like civilization winning the lottery. If you win the lottery, you can squander the money, invest the money, use it to do projects you could never afford, etc. Realizing it's just a temporary boom can help.
  
  I wanted to note that an early peak oil may actually be good news. Francois Cellier, emeritus professor of the University of Arizona and ZTH Zurich posted an interesting article on theoildrum.com a couple of years ago. He does computer modeling and he tried to integrate peak oil, climate change, environmental degradation into his earth scenarios. 8 of 10 scenarios lead to catastrophe. Catastrophe means world population going from on the order of 7 billion in 2040 to 1 billion in 2070. He mentioned that the sooner peak oil occured, the easier it was to avoid catastrophe.
  
  A few ideas for people living in the desert:
  1) Solar cooker. I have lots of fun with mine.
  2) Learn what desert natives ate 200 years ago. I believe there is more food in the desert than most people are aware of.
  3) Solar power.
  4) Compost toilet. This is easy for us in the countryside.
  5) Collect rain water. Here again, we are very lucky, we have lots of roof area. There is a large cistern in the back of our garage, when we had the roof redone, we just told the roofer to send the water into the cistern. Don't do anything with the water yet.
  6) Grow native plants.
  
  I also think we have to start talking about this to people. Being prepared as an individual is not really the answer, we need to get communities organized. Difficult to go it alone. I am getting better at bringing up the topic. Most people think I'm a bit nuts, but at least I've introduced the topic to a lot of people.

Past Lessons

Other countries have gone through crisis similar to Peak Oil. Notably Cuba. Russia has gone through a political crisis. Argentina and other South American countries have gone through a crisis in their financial system. These examples give us something that we can look to when searching for answers. Beside the Cubans (which for me is the Peak Oil example par excellence) (see The Power of Community: How Cuba Survived Peak Oil), the Russians might also become a "role" model. Just like the Cubans have gone through a collapse, so have the Russians. Can we learn from them? Read www.SurvivingPeakOil.com and "Social Collapse Best Practices". Even Kenya might help us understand what is important and what's not in a "Life After the Crash".

Funny that the US might have to learn from their biggest enemies (Cuba and Russia) and that the "enemies" are possibly a step ahead nowadays.

Forecasts

In Jan 2008 Gail from TheOilDrum made a forecast for 2008, a total of 15 predictions. I just read it now and I am in awe how well she hit the nail on the head. I guess she got 10-12 out of 15 right on. I was impressed and scared. Then I found her 2009 forecast, written in Jan 2009. The 2009 forecast is a lot less detailed. But knowing that it came from the person who got 2008 so right, I have to give special weight to this information. I suggest you read the 2008 forecast first and then the 2009 one.

• 2008 forecast
• 2009 forecast

Euro

Recently I am finding more worrisome articles like this one about the health of the Euro currency.

Codex Alimentarius

Governments and corporations are controlling politics, money, media, etc. It is not surprising that they also control our food and health. Have a look at these videos and see how irrational the WTO is on this subject.

• Codex and Nutricide video (2005) by Health Freedom USA
• Codex Alimentarius video (2005) by WellTV

The Economic Growth Engine

A friend referred me to a book by Ayres and Warr entitled "The Economic Growth Engine". The authors of this unique book explore the fundamental relationship between thermodynamics (physical work) and economics. They take a realistic approach to explaining the relationship between technological progress, thermodynamic efficiency and economic growth, the findings of which conclude with a fundamental explanation of endogenous growth that is both quantifiable and consistent with the laws of thermodynamics. A major implication of this is that future economic growth is not guaranteed in as much as efficiency gains that have driven past growth may not continue in the future.

The Economic Growth Engine: How Energy and Work Drive Material Prosperity
Par Robert U. Ayres, Benjamin Warr
Publié par Edward Elgar Publishing Limited, 2009
ISBN 1848441827, 9781848441828
416 pages

This book contains a simple robust model of economic output with which we can accurately predict just how bad things are going to get.

Off-Grid Living

I am in my absolute beginner phase of off-grid housing. I like the concept. It sounds good and I am convinced. I started my very initial research and this is what I found.

• Water: If given a permit from city hall (which is not clear that it will give) one can drill for water and install a well. That costs some Euro 6,000. Then add roughly Euro 1,000 for equipment like pump, 1000 liter container, carbon filters, etc. So, water seems to be straight forward where we live (if you live in a rural area and are given the permit).
• Heating: Heating can be shifted to wood. Wooden pellets are becoming popular and if need be you can plant your own trees and become 100% self sufficient. That can provide you with hot water, heating and possibly even a hot stove to cook with. That also looks achievable.
• Electricity - Solar panels: This article points out that this is a Euro 50,000 investment. Given that currently I pay about €50/month to the electricity utility company, the €50,000 bill is equivalent to 80 years of current consumption at current price. The equipment will need additional maintenance, etc. I will be long dead before breaking even.
• Electricity - Wind power: Wind mills that generate enough power for a small family also run into €50,000. The same math as above applies. Plus one needs a city hall permit which in my case is not clear if it will be granted.
• Electricity - Human power: Pedal power can generate up to 150 W/h. In short it is enough to power a laptop, TV or several light pulps, but it is not enough to power the washing machine, oven, etc. Also, I will not have time/desire enough to pedal 4h a day on my bike to have electricity for evening lights.

Becoming electricity independent seems to be the hardest. Anyone has good ideas?

Paradigm Shift in our Mind Set

Albert Einstein said "We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them". Our current problems cannot be resolved if we just repeat what we have tried in the past with limited success. We have to look at the problem with new eyes. Edward de Bono points out that climate change is not the principal threat of humanity, but our narrow thinking is. It is time to open our mind. Source: El Pais.

The Revolution Will Not Be Televised

It is a nice documentary (video, description). It is not a must see because it does not affect us directly, but it reiterates that one should not blindly trust what comes out of the TV (or a documentary for that matter). We have to be critical. Having been to Cuba one can well understand what is going on. Not that Chavez is all good, but I have strong respect for the guts he has resisting pressures. I got quite emotional when I watched it. It is a better thriller than any James Bond movie.

Personal Contradictions

As I face today's challenges I run into many personal contradictions and frequently I feel forced into something I don't like doing or don't see as appropriate actions.

• Speculation: I feel forced to speculate because there is no way to protect savings in today's financial system. I don't want to gain or grow profits, I just want to protect what I have, just maintain current savings, but it is impossible. Inflation controlled by the Federal Reserve eats and negates any savings. Stocks and mutual funds go through boom and bust cycles again controlled by the Federal Reserve. Real estate bubbles are equally the doing of artificial financial manipulations and irresponsible actions of banks. So, what's left? Where to put the nest egg? Gold? Even there is risk; risk of confiscation, risk of a gold bubble, etc. Is buying farm land a possible answer? I don't know. All I know is that our current sick, ailing and failing system makes it impossible and at the least very time consuming and risk-loaded to maintain and protect your life long savings and your retirement nest egg.
• Materialism. With peak oil causing major changes in the fundamentals but the industry not responding to the needs, a difficult transition period is inevitable. All my life I tried to have a small footprint and have few material goods. I avoided having lots of adult toys, we live in a small apartment, etc. But in a peak oil crisis I will be poorly prepared. It is difficult to adapt a small city flat for sustainability. A small flat will always depend on utility companies (gas, water, electricity) and there are no alternatives (wood heating, rain water recycling, etc.). In case of a peak oil crisis the opposite will be good: Having a house, lots of land to plant or farm, space to store energy (wood, etc.), space to put solar panels, and so on. But a house means being a lot more materialistic. You need a lot more goods: the house itself, garden tools, saws, containers, and the list goes on and on. Just compare what you find in a 50 square meter city flat to the stuff you find on a 250 square meter farm house. I feel that preparing for peak oil means partially turning to materialism, buying tons of stuff.
• Sustainability, investment: I am playing with buying some farm land and building a house on it geared a little bit towards sustainability or call it frugality. So, a small house would be easier to maintain/heat/sustain. But on the other hand current regulations and perceptions punish this kind of thinking. For example, you buy a land with the right to build a 250 square meter house but then only build a 100 sq meter house. Your rural property just lost 50% of its value. Why? Because when you sell the property in 10 years and the new owner wants to build a new house or expand the existing one through an extension he is most likely not allowed to. The new limit will be set to what you build now. In such cases sustainability and investment seem to be mutual, exclusive trade-offs at the extreme ends of the scale.

Food as Currency

There are many options for alternative currencies used in small projects around the world. The key ones are: time, precious metals, energy and food. Today I spotted this project using food as currency. Best of all, we can and we should have all of these currencies at the same time. Let there be a truly free market without monopoly. Let the fiat paper money compete with time, precious metals, energy and food money. I certainly would have a little bit of each currency. Food money makes food storage convenient and is best suited for true emergencies. You can't eat gold, but the food money is backed by real food.

Documentaries

Is it just my impression or is it true. Documentaries have become increasingly popular in the last years. Bowling for Columbine (video) was one of the first ones who had big success. Nowadays it seems that there is a good documentary produced nearly every week.

Just this week 2 new documentaries on peak oil and climate change were announced. I have not seen them yet. But they look interesting. Blind Spot and The Age of Stupid.

Eating Healthy

Just a short while ago I heard an author talk about a new book of his on the topic of healthy eating. He had some 5 rules on how to select food in the super market. 1) Buy nothing that has more than 5 ingredients. 2) Buy nothing that has an expiration date more than 5 days into the future. I cannot remember the other rules. I liked these rules. A back-to-basics, back-to-natural cooking approach. I am far from complying with these rules. Even my muesli has more than 5 ingredients and lasts for more than 5 days.

Especially rule 2 is in stark contrast to my action plan to prepare for peak oil. My action plan includes a stock pile of food to handle some food shortages. Enough food for several weeks, maybe a month. Of course on my list for such hoarding are exclusively items that have an expiration date of about 1 year into the future. So, on one hand peak oil will make us eat less healthy. Definitely violates the 5-day-expiration rule of this author. On the other hand though after the initial crisis peak oil will lead to local food production. We will eat more local and more simple foods. I am looking forward to it.

Transition Culture

A few weeks ago I ran across this organization: transitionculture.org and transitionnetwork.org. Last week a friend mailed me this link t their Who we are document. It is very well written. I like that it takes a very positive approach in this world where we are bombarded with negative news daily. It is showing us a good direction. Cooperation is clearly one of the key items to address the crisis, um, transition (sounds so much nicer).

I personally am not quite ready for this step yet. I have to go through several steps in my personal action plan first before I can move up to the cooperation phase. The very first step would be a search to see if there are any local individuals or groups in the town where I live.

If you live in Bilbao or Bakio and are interested in this stuff, leave a comment with your email address and I will contact you.

Action Items

The very first action items that came to my mind were these.

• Be conscious! Be aware! Pay attention!
  
• Think! Re-think! Ask tough questions! Ask why, where, who?
  
• Become mentally prepared
  
• Turn off the TV. Most news channels are controlled only by a handful of corporations, so they all report the same. And since the media is controlled by large corporations they report what is of interest to the large corporation, i.e. bias information. We have to turn to other channels for our news or at least avoid the brain-washing of the traditional TV stations.
  
• Avoid credits. Credits feed the money machine and give power to the banks. Pay them back as soon as possible. Get a personal loan if possible. Save first, then buy.
  
• Put your financial investments partially outside the banks to diversify and reduce risk. Buy real estate, buy gold coins or bullions.
  
• Avoid main currencies (USD, possible future world-wide global currency) and use or favor alternative currency (bus token, stamp scrip, silver/gold dollar, digital gold currency, time-based currency, barter) instead
  
• Don't support the military or any military action. The motives for going to war are misleading. There is nothing honorable about a war.
  
• Be critical! Ask questions! Get to understand who profits and loses in globalization. Voice your discontent about the current money system based on the federal reserves, IMF, World Bank, etc. Learn what they do to other countries and their people. Politicians? Whom do they work for? Who made them what they are? To whom are they in debt? The campaign contributors? What is their primary goal? Re-election? Your freedom? Why are we sticking to limited resources such as oil? Who is profiting from that? Understand that we could use nearly limitless energy resources but that profit-thinking is preventing it.
  
• Have a back-up plan for an economic or political disaster. What if the currency become nearly valueless? What if you get laid off? What if social security is stopped? At least think about your options.
  
• Spread the information. Talk to your wife, your kids, your friends and neighbors. Teach your kids where the money comes from, who creates it and why it devalues.
  

But I am still looking for many answers: How do we bring people to give up profit thinking? How do we reduce competition in which there is a guaranteed loser when we can live a life where everybody wins? How do we remove power from the powerful? How do we reduce greed and envy? How do we make people understand the limits of this planet? How do we make people understand that we are all connected, that we are all human and that a person in Africa values the same as in the first world?

A Farm for the Future

Just watched this movie: A Farm for the Future. Discussion here. Explains how food production is highly oil dependent. Fertilizers, insecticides, farming fuel, transportation fuel - and the list goes on and on - all are made from oil. No oil, no industrial food. Even green eco-farms even though they use different fertilizers are nonetheless highly depend on oil and energy. After transport (cars, trucks, ships, airplanes) farming is the worldwide the biggest oil consumer. Somewhere else I have heard that food production uses 40% of the global oil consumption. Expert groups predict that we will have an energy famine. So, the immediate next step and a direct conclusion is that we will have a food famine unless we react and start rethinking and a transitioning our food production.

The author thinks that going back to horses or mules - like they have and are doing partially in Cuba - will not be a workable solution for many 1st world countries due to skills, number of and age of farmers, etc. Not plowing and grass choices might be significant factors to reducing oil consumption for cattle and sheep farming.

Several example forest farms were presented giving hope. Amazing stuff! An innovative permaculture "farm" (more like forest really) can feed up to 10 people per hectare. The key is in putting a wide variety of plants together and putting it into a small scale forest environment. It reduces manual labor and brings oil use close to zero. And it looked like paradise: green, lush, full of life.