Understanding the New Price of Oil

Gregor Macdonald has written an interesting article entitled "Understanding the New Price of Oil" that explains how over time the factors determining the oil price have changed. Besides that the article has a lot of small tidbits of highly relevant information regarding the future of oil. Worth reeading.

Motion Sensors and Lights

Now that we know that we should always turn the lights off, the next questions is: Is it worth while to put motion or light sensors into the home to turn the light on automatically? Here is an excellent article, entitled "Does a Motion-Activated Light Switch Save Money?". The average consumption of the sensor is around 1W. So, for 24 hours a day, the sensor is consuming 1W. Government guidelines from Australia try push this "phantom" stand-by consumption down to 0.25W. Just this week I bought a lamp with 6 LEDs of which each LED consumes 0.06W, a total of 0.36W for all 6 LEDs combined. Instead of operating a sensor and a light one could just leave a dim LED light on all the time and in comparison to the sensor save energy and money. In conclusion, unless you are forgetful to turn the light off manually or for security concerns, a light or motion sensor for turning the light on at home makes little energy sense.

Turn the Light Off

Once someone told me that he leaves the fluorescent kitchen light on all night even when not in the kitchen because it saves energy and money. According to him the startup of the fluorescent bulb is so high that it compensates for hours of being turned on. I was always curious about this but never found a good answer, until today: According to the article it is always better to turn the fluorescent light off, even if only leaving the room for 5 minutes. The startup peak energy consumption is so short that it does not compensate for leaving the light on. Here is the full article entitled "Does Turning Fluorescent Lights Off Use More Energy Than Leaving Them On?". In short always turn all lights off. This holds true for incandescents, flourescents and LEDs.

Illegal Everything

How about our civil rights? Our freedoms? Every year we have more laws, more regulations and less liberties. Have a look at this 40-min documentary "Illegal Everything".

Shale Oil

Chris Martenson wrote an excellent article entitled "Dangerous Ideas" that deals a lot with shale oil and how media uses it to downplay peak oil and play a rosy future full of unlimited energy. The US has the biggest reserves today but only a small production. Lately there are a lot of news articles published that report of new evidence showing that fracking (needed for converting oil shale into usable oil and gasoline) is safe. Example articles here and here. With both in place, a mega deposit of oil shale in North Dakota and safe extraction processes through fracturing, all is well now according to the media.

The reality is different. The world's leading shale oil producer is Estonia. The problems seem to become clear when one considers that in 2002, about 97% of air pollution, 86% of total waste and 23% of water pollution in Estonia came from the power industry, which uses oil shale as the main resource for its power production (source). This is quite a contrast to media reports in the US. Efficiency is another factor. More recent studies estimates the EROEI of oil shales to be 1–2:1 or 2–16:1 – depending when self-energy is counted as a cost or internal energy is exclude and only purchased energy is counted as input (source). That means in the very best case, with 1 gallon of external oil as input one can generate 16 gallons of oil from shale. Worst case, for 1 gallon of external oil as input one can generate 2 gallons of shale oil. If we add in all the energy from the oil shale that is also used up in the shale-to-oil conversion then the energy calculation is as follows: In the worst case, for using up 1 calorie of input we extract 1 calorie in form of oil as output. In the best case, for using up 1 calorie of input we extract 2 calorie in form of oil as output. In other words the extraction process consumes 0.5 to 1 calorie to extract 1 calorie of oil. As far as I know this calculation only covers the conversion process, it does not cover the energetic cost to produce all the equipment necessary, the energetic cost to transport the equipment to the exploration site, the energetic cost to clean up and "heal" the site after exploration is being abandoned, etc. Furthermore, extracted shale oil is not liquid at environmental temperatures. In order to pump it through pipes the pipes would have to be heated, making transport even more energy consuming. If we add all this into the equation, it is a clear loss. No doubt we can technically extract energy, but it can only be done with massive energetic input, massive current resource use and leaving the cleanup to future generations.

Pay attention to the next shale oil stories you hear in the media.

The Gold Rush is On

Disaster for some (the less privileged) always turns into a gold mine for others (a few privileged or connected). No matter what the disaster is, natural, economic or ecologic, there are always vulture companies turning it into a giant profit at the cost of the just affected. In many cases it is big governments that take advantage of the disaster to funnel public money to private corporations. Here is a good example from recent history. Less than a month after the quake in Haiti US Ambassador Kenneth Merten sent a cable to the his corporate and NGO contacts with the message "The gold rush is on". Two years later Haiti looks like the earth quake has been merely 2 months ago. Where did all the relief fund money go? Where did it not go? Find out here in this 10-min video report entitled "The Haitian Earthquake Gold Rush".

Global Restoration

This young man has voiced his vision for the Occupy Wall Street movement in his 10-min video "Global Restoration: Vision For Occupy & Earth". It has some Zeitgeist aspects to it and some "back to the land" ideas with the principal goal of global ecological restoration. He sees the industrial civilization as the root of all evil. I like his optimism and activism, but his vision is incomplete.

Can or should his vision be the direction of OWS? I think it can be part of OWS, it is certainly positive and worth while, but I think it is insufficient. If this is all of OWS than the men in power will remain and control and oppression will continue in one form or another. We need more than just passive rejection of the current system, moving out and away is not enough. An active stance against the controlling powers is essential.

Similarly with the back-to-the-land idea. I like it. It can bring create small tightly weaved societies, benefit us and the environment, increase our happiness as individuals, and some more. But we still need industry, under different control, but a society without industry seems unimaginable to me.

It can be a big piece in the puzzle of a solution to our problems, but as a all-encompassing vision I see it incomplete. A mathematician might say it is required but not sufficient.

Bill Still running for President

Bill Still announced his candidacy for the Libertarian Party nomination for President of the United States. Have a look at his campain website: still2012.com. He promises 3 actions if voted president:

1. He will put an end to government borrowing. No More National Debt! The United States will replace Federal Reserve Notes by re-issuing debt-free U.S. Notes, and gradually pay off the National Debt with them. 
2. He will put an end to the ability of commercial banks to control the Quantity of money in our system through what is essentially counterfeiting. This has been a massive fraud on the people of the United States. We, the people, will take back the money power from the big banks and return the American economy to monetary stability and prosperity. 
3. He will abolish the Internal Revenue System and the income tax – both personal and corporate — and implement a fair, simple and equitable consumption tax in accordance with the U.S. Constitution. This is how we funded the US government for the first 100 years, and we can do it again.

MF Global

Here is a 23-min summary of the MF Global case: Capital Account of 12/08/11 from RT (first 23 minutes). What is your bank or broker doing?

Whose gold bar is it?

The referenced article is a must read for all GLD holders and even for physical gold holders. Too many financial institutions perform unethical and illegal operations. MF Global brings to daylight some of the problems arising through rehypothecation in the paper and physical gold market. The article "The Gold "Rehypothecation" Unwind Begins: HSBC Sues MF Global Over Disputed Ownership Of Physical Gold" comes to the conclusion that even allocated physical gold held in customers' names by mayor financial institutions is at risk. Is it time to take the metal home?

Re-hypothecation

A new word we need to learn: re-hypothecation. Hypothecation is when a borrower pledges collateral to secure a debt. Rehypothecation, in short, means lending of property lent to one, but of whom one is not the owner. The biggest misuse of re-hypothecation might be the current MF Global scandal. Read this article to see how large and established financial institutions break the law or use loopholes to enrich themselves and have the unaware customers pick up the losses when the bets fail: MF Global and the great Wall St re-hypothecation scandal.

‘D-Day’ Near For GLD

If you own GLD or think about investing in GLD it is a smart idea to read these two articles first:

• D-Day near for GLD
• The Seven Sins of GLD

According to the author Jeff Nielson of the article, "D" can stand for "Default"-Day or "Destruction"-Day. He is wrong about the date when D-Day will occur (he suggested 11/11/11), but his warnings are food for thought nevertheless.

Our Daily Poison

The autor Marie Monique Robin of the highly acclaimed full-length documental "The World according to Monsanto" has released a new work, again a full-length documental entitled "Notre Poison quotidien" ("Our Daily Poison"). The English trailer is available here. The full version is available in French (Notre Poison quotidien), in German (Unser täglich Gift - Wenn Essen krank macht) and with Spanish subtitles (Nuestro Veneno Cotidiano). Since "The World according to Monsanto" was such an excellent piece of work and investigation, I am very much looking forward to this new documentary released in January 2011. It will be another must-see documental!

Debt Simplified

These are some numbers from the US, but one can easily replace it with numbers from Greece, Italy, Spain, Zimbabwe, ... It is pretty clear that we are not addressing the problem, we are not even grasping it. (The $38.5 trillion number budget cut figure seems to refer to the budget cut deal that averted a US government shutdown in April 2011.)  (Source)

Some stats about the US government:

• U.S. Tax revenue: $2,170,000,000,000 
• Fed budget: $3,820,000,000,000 
• New debt: $ 1,650,000,000,000 
• National debt: $14,271,000,000,000 
• Recent budget cuts: $ 38,500,000,000 

Now, remove 8 zeroes and pretend it’s a household budget:

• Annual family income: $21,700 
• Money the family spent: $38,200 
• New debt on the credit card: $16,500 
• Outstanding balance on the credit card: $142,710 
• Total budget cuts: $385

Any questions?

1000 Uses for old Pallets

This is fantastic video of only 2 minutes. It gives so many ideas of how to use and reuse old pallets. Just outstanding!

Energy Conservation

I just stumbled across this link on energy conservation. It is a very long list on energy conservation ideas, simple actions and DIY projects for your home. It has a lot of information on a single page. There is something here for everyone.

Going in Circles

When do you think the following text was written?

Rule a nation with justice.
Wage war with surprise moves.
The more laws and restrictions there are,
The poorer people become.
The sharper men's weapons,
The more trouble in the land.
The more ingenious and clever men are,
The more strange things happen.
The more rules and regulations,
The more thieves and robbers.


Why are the people starving?
Because the rulers eat up the money in taxes.
Therefore the people are starving.
Why are the people rebellious?
Because the rulers interfere too much.
Therefore they are rebellious.


It was written some 2400 years ago by Lao Tse in his book Tao Te Ching. The two segments of text were taken from chapter 57 and 75. As we see history constantly repeats itself.

Earthships

Earthships are a form of sustainable housing construction pioneered by Michael Reynolds, primarily using earth-filled used tires, old glass and water bottles as construction material. This 90-min documentary entitled Garbage Warrior outlines his personal story and shows some marvellous examples of earthships in New Mexico. It is amazing to see his vision in the houses he built more than 30 years ago.

Occupy Wall Street

We are celebrating the 1st month anniversary of the Occupy Wall Street movement. I am impressed. I think it is great that they don't have a list of demands, no list of claims or a single slogan yet. It needs talking, discussing and listening to derive a movement direction in a true participative democratic way. It is great to see them open, inclusive rather than exclusive, restrained rather than impulsive, local yet distributed. In Taoist style their non-action is the best action, the most convincing and moving action.

In "This Rebellion will not Stop" they write: "We have not come to work within the system. We are not pleading with the Congress for electoral reform. We know electoral politics is a farce. We have found another way to be heard and exercise power. We have no faith in the political system or the two major political parties. And we know the corporate press will not amplify our voices which is why we have a press of our own. We know the economy serves the oligarchs. We know that to survive this protest we will have to build non-hierarchical communal systems that care for everyone." So true, Occupy Wall Street must seek sustainable and auto-sufficient paths in order to survive. I certainly feel they understand the problem and the depth thereof. The problems are so profound that there is no single slogan that can express it, no single action that can fix it, no single body that can address it.

Plenty of reasons to get informed about, follow and support the Occupy Wall Street movement around the globe. Here are some starting points:

• Occupy Wall Street Journal, Issue 1
• Occupy Wall Street Journal, Issue 2
• Occupy Wall Street Journal, Issue 3
• Occupy Wall Street Journal, Issues 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, ... (online articles and PDF copies)

Follow the Occupation:

• OWS
• nycga.net
• occupywallst.org
• occupiedmedia.org
• takethesquare.net
• occupytogether.org
• wearethe99percent.tumblr.com
• www.facebook.com/theowsj
• www.youtube.com/occupytv
• www.youtube.com/user/OccupyTVNY
• www.youtube.com/user/LibertyPlazaRev
• Follow on Twitter: @occupywallstnyc, @nycsep17, @occupywallst

But the Occupation must be careful. Some of its methods have been criticized, especially the people's microphone. The biggest thread is being high-jacked. It has happened since the start and the high-jacking attempts will only intensify as the visibility of the Occupation increases. Politicians, CIA, CEOs, etc. all are waiting in line to influence and use the Occupation for its own purposes. Read OWS: Are Mindless Americans Falling Prey to the Collectivist Trap? to get an alternative viewpoint. "To avoid the collectivist trap, participants in OWS events must first learn to read between the lines, or they may unwittingly become party to something completely different to what they thought they had signed up for in the first place." Be watchful, be critical!

Gold has Changed

The article "Gold bugs beware - The Gold bubble is finally bursting" in the Financial Times argues that the gold bubble is about to burst. I would agree that gold is in a bubble phase, but I see it as a lesser evil than other forms of investment and wealth protection. What the article does bring to ones attention is that gold today is not what gold was a decade ago. Gold has changed a lot due to the creation of popular ETFs such as GLD. Now gold has become an electronic digit on the computer, it can be bought, sold, repackaged, options taken with the click of the mouse or the stroke of a key. It has turned gold into a speculation. Even those of us who dislike the idea of speculation have to live with this new fact. The burdensome and limiting process of a physical object has become a 0 or 1 sent through the Internet at the speed of electrons. Now its here, now its not. It is bought and sold like any other share thousands of times a day when its value moves a cent up or a cent down. With this in mind we can forget anything we know about gold and forget all the lessons learned from gold in the past. Gold isn't gold anymore. Gold is riskier than ever before and it might bring to light many unexpected surprises. Still what is one going to chose for one's personal pension or long-term nest-egg: dollars, Euros, government bonds, oil, real estate, silver or gold? One option looks worse than the other. The least frightening option might still be precious metals.