Saturday, April 21, 2012

Spain the next country to collapse?

Iceland, Ireland, Portugal and Greece all have gone through crash-and-rescue operation. The storm over Spain is brewing for a long time already. The PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland Greece and Spain) have been in the news for more than a year. Spain's job less rate is officially over 20% already, unofficially it is assumed to be even higher. Some cities, e.g. Cadiz, have an official jobless rate of 33%+. The biggest problem is the real-estate market, the past real-estate boom, the still inflated real-estate prices and the real-estate loans banks signed in the past 30 years. This is not something that can be corrected in a single year. The loans are bad and will eternally remain bad. The price adjustment of real-estate could be fast. The bubble could burst and instead of the 10% decline over the last 3 years, prices might go down 30% or more.

Here is an article that argues that the Spanish collapse is imminent. All other collapses (from Iceland to Greece) have been controlled collapses through IMF and ECB injections of freshly printed paper money. Will Spain also be a controlled collapse and will it be a rougher ride this time around? And how far will the rumbling be felt? Read this "Spain is About to Enter a Full-Scale Collapse".

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